Bitcoin’s $200K Horizon: How Federal Reserve Leadership Could Fuel Crypto’s Next Bull Run

In a compelling market analysis, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz suggests that Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 under a dovish Federal Reserve chair. Current Chair Jerome Powell's resistance to early interest rate cuts has temporarily delayed Bitcoin's ascent, but Novogratz argues that softer monetary policy would weaken the U.S. dollar, driving investors toward alternative assets like cryptocurrency. The timing of this prediction coincides with ongoing speculation about potential leadership changes at the Fed. Novogratz, demonstrating strategic foresight, has hedged his crypto investments with Nasdaq put options, anticipating broader market volatility. This perspective highlights the intricate relationship between central bank policies and digital asset valuations, positioning Bitcoin as a potential beneficiary of shifting economic strategies. As of October 2025, the crypto community watches closely for any signals from the Federal Reserve that might validate Novogratz's projection and ignite the next major rally in the digital currency space.

Next Fed Chairman Could Ignite Bitcoin Rally, Says Novogratz

Jerome Powell's resistance to early rate cuts may have delayed Bitcoin's ascent, but a dovish Fed chair could now become crypto's ultimate catalyst. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz posits that softer monetary policy WOULD weaken the dollar, potentially propelling BTC to $200,000 as investors flock to alternative assets.

The scenario isn't speculative fiction—Novogratz hedges his crypto bets with Nasdaq puts, anticipating market turbulence. Bitcoin's role could evolve beyond digital gold, becoming the settlement layer for a tokenized financial system blending stocks, stablecoins, and credit instruments.

Bitcoin Struggles in Q3 as Key Technical Level Comes Into Focus

Bitcoin closed its third-worst week of the year with a 5% decline, underperforming equities, metals, and the US dollar. The cryptocurrency eked out a 1% gain for Q3 but faces headwinds from options expirations and technical resistance.

Friday's $17 billion options expiry saw the max pain price anchor spot BTC near $110,000. The short-term holder cost basis at $110,775 now serves as critical support—a level bitcoin has tested multiple times during this bull market. The April exception saw prices plunge to $74,500 during market turmoil.

Analysts are watching whether Bitcoin maintains its higher highs and higher lows pattern. The breakdown below the 100-day exponential moving average raises questions about trend sustainability, though historical seasonality suggests Q3 weakness often precedes year-end rallies.

Digital Asset Treasuries Struggle as Stock Prices Fall Below Crypto Holdings

Companies emulating MicroStrategy's Bitcoin acquisition strategy face mounting pressure as their stock valuations dip below the value of their cryptocurrency holdings. Seven firms—including Semler Scientific, ETHZilla, and Metaplanet—now trade at market capitalizations lower than their BTC reserves, prompting emergency share buybacks.

The trend reveals cracks in the digital asset treasury (DAT) model. Firms that announced crypto pivots earlier this year saw temporary stock surges followed by sustained declines. Several are now borrowing up to $250 million to repurchase shares, a MOVE market observers interpret as a last-ditch effort to stabilize prices.

Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy remains the outlier, with its aggressive BTC accumulation strategy still commanding investor confidence. But for smaller players, the third quarter has exposed the risks of tying corporate value too closely to volatile crypto assets. Their predicament mirrors broader turbulence in crypto-linked equities as markets question the sustainability of Bitcoin-heavy balance sheets.

Metaplanet (MTPLF) Stock Plummets 41% MTD Despite Bitcoin's Strength, Analysts Hold Buy Rating

Metaplanet Inc., a Tokyo-based firm holding over 25,500 BTC, saw its stock nosedive 41% in September 2025 even as Bitcoin traded near record highs. Shares closed at ¥517 on September 26, continuing a downward trend that contrasts sharply with crypto market performance.

Benchmark Equity Research maintained its 'Buy' rating with a ¥2,400 price target for 2026, while Capital Group emerged as the largest shareholder with an 11.45% stake. The divergence between Metaplanet's stock and Bitcoin's price action highlights company-specific concerns including share dilution and valuation questions.

OTC-listed MTPLF shares have fallen approximately 40% year-to-date, with notable volatility including a 14% single-day drop in July. Analysts attribute the weakness to internal factors rather than broader market conditions, creating a rare disconnect between corporate Bitcoin exposure and equity performance.

NYDIG Urges Bitcoin Treasury Firms to Abandon 'Misleading' mNAV Metric Amid Landmark Merger

Strive Asset Management's acquisition of Semler Scientific marks the first-ever merger between two Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), creating a combined entity holding over 10,900 BTC. The deal highlights growing institutional interest in bitcoin as a treasury asset, but also exposes flaws in how these firms are valued.

NYDIG's research team has called for the elimination of the mNAV (market cap divided by crypto holdings) metric, calling it 'misleading' at best and 'disingenuous' at worst. The metric fails to account for operational businesses or other assets held by DATs, while often incorporating unexercised convertible debt in share count calculations.

Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG's Global Head of Research, argues that convertible debt represents a more onerous liability than simple share issuance, as debt holders would demand cash repayment rather than equity conversion during volatility. The critique comes as bitcoin treasury strategies gain mainstream traction among corporations.

Crypto Treasuries Companies May Crash Markets Nearly 80%, Like Dotcoms!

Ray Youssef, founder of peer-to-peer platform NoOnes, draws parallels between today's crypto treasuries boom and the dotcom bubble of the early 2000s. The late 1990s saw internet companies attract massive investments despite lacking fundamentals—a scenario now repeating with crypto, DeFi, and Web3 projects.

Corporate crypto holdings, once hailed as proof of institutional conviction, may become a liability. Youssef warns that treasury-dependent firms could trigger a market reset by offloading Bitcoin and other assets during failures. The coming shakeout may mirror the dotcom crash's 80% collapse, though disciplined players could emerge stronger by acquiring discounted blue-chip cryptocurrencies.